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THE CLIMATE OVERSHOOT COMMISSION
How should the world reduce
the risk of temperature overshoot?
1.45°C
The average global temperature in 2023
Credit: WMO state of Global Climate 2023 Report
80%
Likelihood of at least one year temporarily exceeding 1.5°C in the next five-year period (2024-2028)
45%
reduced emissions by 2030 to keep global warming to no more than 1.5°C
The Challenge
In 2015 in Paris, governments agreed to limit global warming to well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C. But temperatures are approaching the lower end of these. Even optimistic emissions scenarios indicate a significant chance of overshooting the goals, even if temporarily.
The CARE Agenda
Reducing the Risks of Climate Change
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The risk of climate overshoot – that is, of exceeding the Paris Agreement goal of limiting average global warming to 1.5°C – is high and rising, and with it the risk of worsening impacts on human health, food security, water availability, social stability, and ecosystems.
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People worldwide would welcome a safer, cleaner, more equitable world. All countries could, and should, act now to help bring about such a world.
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The CARE agenda offers an integrated set of recommendations for achieving this by
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Cutting emissions of greenhouse gasses
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Adapting to the unavoidable impacts of climate change
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Removing carbon from the atmosphere
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Exploring solar radiation modification
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READ THE FULL REPORT:
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Strategic Details
Credit: Climate Overshoot Commission
An integrated strategy to address climate overshoot:
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Cut Emissions - Accelerate emissions reductions and consolidate decarbonization.
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Adapt - Expand adaptation and fully mainstream into development.
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Remove - Develop and deploy higher-quality carbon dioxide removal to help achieve net-zero emissions targets and beyond.
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Explore - Adopt a moratorium on large-scale solar radiation modification and expand research and governance dialogue.
Approaches to Reducing Risks from Climate Overshoot
These approaches should be evaluated and implemented so that well-informed decisions can be made. Governance is crucial and requires to be renewed towards, effectiveness, justice, and equity.
Boosting greenhouse gas emissions reductions and phasing-out fossil fuel
Greatly expanding and accelerating adaptation measures to reduce climate vulnerability
Removing excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere
Exploring the risks and benefits of reflecting incoming sunlight
Scaling up climate finance especially for developing economies
The Concept of Climate Overshoot
The 1.5°C goal is not just a number. Countries set this limit to signal the point beyond which it considers the risks of climate change to be unacceptable. The Climate Overshoot Commission understands “climate overshoot” to mean crossing this threshold.
CO2 emissions to date
Credit: Climate Overshoot Commission
Emissions continue to rise, however, and the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C is shrinking, despite more than three decacdes of effort and progress in some areas, and despite the manifest benefits of decarbonization.
The Commission recognizes that the risk of climate overshoot is significant and imminent and requires us all to act now.
Credit: Climate Overshoot Commission
OUR MISSION
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The purpose of the Commission is to consider the potential benefits, opportunities, and risks of a wide range of climate action approaches to minimize further increases in global temperatures and to reduce and manage the heightened risk of overshoot.
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Our goal is to widely share our CARE Agenda, an integrated strategy for reducing the risks related to breaching the Paris Agreement’s goals, and limiting and managing these risks should an overshoot take place.
Commissioners include former heads of government, national ministers, directors of inter-governmental organizations, environmental group leaders, and academic experts.
2015
At COP21 in Paris, governments agreed to limit global warming to well below 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C:
2022
IPCC concluded that it is almost inevitable that we will temporarily exceed this 1.5°C:
2023
The Climate Overshoot Commission released its groundbreaking CARE Agenda in September, ahead of COP28.
THE COMMISSION
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Who We Are
The Climate Overshoot Commission held the necessary conversations about whether and how additional approaches (including differentiated fossil fuel phase-out, accelerated adaptation, carbon dioxide removal and solar radiation modification exploration) could reduce the risks of a warming climate, and recommended an integrated governance strategy titled the CARE Agenda.
The Commission is the first high-level group to address all these options in a holistic, integrated manner, free from conventional political constraints.
Our aim is to recommend an integrated strategy that could minimize the damage and suffering to people and the planet.
Pascal Lamy
Former Director-General of the World Trade Organization, France
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